NewBloc投研:深思比特币长远价值与短期波动

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所属分类:币圈短评

本文作者:

New Bloc 策略分析师潘泽华,5 年外汇黄金市场交易员;

New Bloc 策略分析师康康,前 Odaily 星球日报分析师。

本期分析观点

1.    MEIYUANZHISHUZHUDIHESHINIANMEIZHAIZOUQIANG,DUANSHIFENGXIANZICHANHUOMIANLINHUIDIAOFENGXIAN;

2.    Graycale ZENGCHISUDUFANGHUAN,XIANHUORONGZIRONGQUANGANGGANSHULAIDAOBANNIANNEIXINGAO;

3.    BITEBIJIDUHEYUELINJINJIAOGE,QIHUOCHICANGLIANGLVCHUANGXINGAO,ZHUYIXIAXINGFENGXIAN;

4.    GENJU MMT LILUN,SHUZIZICHANDEBODONGXINGJIANGCHIXUJIANGDI;

5.    BITEBIYUHUANGJIN、BIAOPU 500 ZHISHUDENGQITAQUANQIUJINRONGZICHANLIANDONGXINGYUELAIYUEQIANG。

2021 年世界经济推演

2020 NIANYILAIYOUYUXINGUANYIQING,DAOZHIGEGUOYANGXINGHUOBIZHENGCE、CAIZHENGZHENGCEQUANMIANFALI,ZAICIBEIJINGXIAKEYIKANDAOMEILIANCHUZICHANFUZHAIBIAO,QUANQIUZHAIWUCHUANGCHULELISHIXINGAO,YUCITONGSHIMEIGU、HUANGJIN、BITEBIDENGZICHANJUNCHUANGCHULISHIXINGAO。TAOYONG MMT LILUNYEJIUSHIFENGXIANZICHANDESHANGZHANGYITUOYUJUMINBUMENZHAIWU、QIYEBUMENZHAIWUZHUANYIDAOZHENGFUBUMENZHAIWU。

JIYU MMT WOMENZHIDAOZHENGFUDEJUZHAISHIJUMINBUMENHEQIYEBUMENHUODEJINGDEJINRONGZICHAN,QIBIAOXIANXINGSHIZHIYIJIUSHIZICHANJIAGEDETAISHENG,YINCIWOMENXUYAOMIQIEGUANZHUZHENGFUCHIZISHIFOUHUICHIXUKUOZHANG。20 SHIJI 30 NIANDAIZAIJINGJIDAXIAOTIAODEBEIJINGXIA,KAIENSIZHUYISHENGXING,KAIENSIZHICHU,DAXIAOTIAODECHUXIANSHIYOUYUYOUXIAOXUQIUHETOUZIXUQIUBUZUZAOCHENGDE,ERZHENGFUWANQUANKEYITONGGUOHUOBIZHENGCEHECAIZHENGCIJILAIBIMIANZHEICIDAXIAOTIAO。DANSHISHIZHIJINRIKAIENSIZHUYIYIJINGZOUDAOJINTOU,QUANQIUYANGXINGWEIXIDILILV,JIHUWUFAZAIJIANGXI,ERQUANQIUCAIZHENGZHENGCEZHAIWUGUIMOYIJINGCHAOCHU GDP DE 100%,ZHEIJIANGDAOZHIMINGNIANCHAOZHELIANGZHONGLUJINGYANBIAN:

1、TONGZHANGBIANHUABUDA,ERMINGNIAN GDP YOUYOUYUZHAIWUWEIJIHUOZHEQITAYUANYINERWUFADEDAOZHENGDEZENGZHANG,JIANGYIWEIZHEZHENGFUJIANGJIASUJUZHAI,ERZHENGFUDEJUZHAI(YANGXINGGOUMAI)SHIQIYEHEJUMINBUMENHUODEJINGDEJINRONGZICHAN,ZHEILIHAOZICHANJIAGEDETAISHENG。

2、TONGZHANGBIANHUABUDA,ERMINGNIAN GDP HUISHENG,YEJIUSHIJINGJIFUSU,JIANGYIWEIZHESHIZHENGFUJUZHAIDECUOSHIYOUXIAO,XUQIUXIAOFUHUISHENG,ERJINGJIDEZIDONGWENDINGQIYOUYUJINGJIFUSU,SHEHUIFULIZHICHUJIANSHAO,SHUISHOUZENGJIAERHUANJIEZHENGFUZHAIWU,ZHEISHIDEJUMINBUMENHEQIYEBUMENDEJINRONGCAIFUJIANSHAO,BULIYUZICHANJIAGEDEBIAOXIAN。

SHANGMIANWEITIJIFASHENGTONGZHANGDEKENENGXING,QIYUANYINYOULIANGDIAN。

其一:在全球经济一体化的今天,其全球分工合作,各个国家的产业结构不同,新兴市场由于人力和资本价格较低,负责加工制造等,依托于第二产业的发展来拉动 GDP,而发达国家是靠消费,依托于第三产业来拉动 GDP。当前问题是发达国家由于贫富差距过大,债务规模过大等等而导致的消费下降,而新兴市场国家承担了全球生产制造加工的职能而在需求萎缩时显得产能过剩。

MUQIANZAIGEGUOYANGXINGDECAIZHENGHEHUOBIZHICHIXIAJIASHANGYOUYUYIQING,GELEISHANGPINKUCUNCHUYUDIWEI,YINCISHICHANGDETONGZHANGYUQIHENGAO,DANSHIZHEIDUIYUCHANNENGGUOSHENGDEXINXINGSHICHANGGUOJIAHEZHAIWUGUOGAODEFADAJINGJITIERYANBUKUCUNDEGUOCHENGJIANGHUISHIHENKUAIDE,ERQIEKUCUNGUODIYEYOUKENENGSHIKUANGQITONGGUOSHANGPINLAIRONGZIXIANDEKUCUNDIWEI,YINCIZHEILIYANSHENGCHUXINDEXUQIUJIRONGZIXUQIU,JINRONGXUQIUXUCHANGCHANGTONGGUOLILVLAIFANYING。YINCISHIJINRONGXUQIU+GONGYEXUQIUGONGTONGTUIGAOTONGDEJIAGE。

其二,是原油市场对于通胀通缩的影响,原油市场属于寡头垄断市场,因此更多的应该从供给和博弈论的角度来进行分析。2014 年美国页岩油革命致使布伦特原油从 113 美元跌至 32 美元,中东产油大国沙特的生产成本、销售成本、财政成本要高于美国的页岩油,因此沙特的供给弹性更高,未来随着原油的大幅度波动可能市场份额越来越小,在抢占市场份额的时候原油价格基本上不存在大幅度向上,更可能的是市场企稳后继续抢占市场份额,因此未来通缩风险犹存(当然如果中东发生大规模战争另说)。

DIYITIAOLUJINGDEYANBIANKENENGSHIYOUYUJINSHENDONGJIDEYANXULAIWEICHICHUXULVGAOWEI,XIAOFEIBUZUHUOZHEZHENGFUCAIZHENGCIJIJIXUJIANGCHI,HUAIZHANGLVJIXUSHANGSHENG,ZHAIWUWEIJIXIANXIAN,ZHENGFUYISHIDAOKENENGFASHENGZHAIWUWEIJIYUSHIJIXUKUODACHIZI。JUMINBUMENHEQIYEBUMENJIXUHUODEJINGDEJINRONGZICHAN,LIHAOZICHANJIAGE。

DIERTIAOLUJINGDEYANBIANKENENGSHIYIMIAODEMIANSHI,BIANJIXIAOFEIQINGXIANGTAISHENG,GDP HUISHENG,SUIZHEJINGJIDEZIDONGWENDINGQIDEFAHUI,ZHENGFUZHAIWUYOUSUOHUANJIE,ZICHANJIAGEKAISHICHENGYA。KENENGFASHENGDESHIZAIMINGNIANERJIDUZHIHOU。

2008 NIANSHICHANGCIDAIWEIJIERYINFALIUDONGXINGWEIJI,ERLIANGDANGYIRANYOUYUBUJUEJINERYANBIANQUANQIUJINRONGWEIJI。MEIGUOSHIFOUHUICHIXU MMT,DUANQILAIKANDUIYUPANGDADESHICHANGMEILIANCHUXINXIYEYOUXIAN,ZHEIKENENGHUIRANGMEILIANCHUFASHENGWUPAN,YINCIDUANQIBUQUEDING,XUYAOJINYIBUGUANCHA,DANCONGZHANGQILAIKAN,MAOSIMEILIANCHUMEIYOUGENGDUODEXUANZE,YINWEIZHAIWUDEHEXINWENTIDAOZUIHOUSHIRENKOUDEWENTI,MEIYOUGENGDUODERENKOULAIWEICHIZHUZHAIWU,YEJIUZHINENGSHIMEILIANCHUCHIXU MMT LE。

从哈耶克的《货币的非国家化》到比特币

ZHENGRUWOMENSUOZHIJINRONGDECUNZAISHIWEILAIXIANJINLIUDEZHEXIAN,YUSHIWOMENKEYICHAOQIANXIAOFEI,DANWOMENDEZHAIWUHUIYUELAIYUEDA,ZHEIHUIYIZHIWEILAIDEXIAOFEI。

NewBloc投研:深思比特币长远价值与短期波动

Source:wind,ZHONGXINZHENGQUANYANJIUBU

RUSHANGTU,WOMENKEYIGUANCHADAOCONG 20 SHIJI 80 NIANDAINIANZHIJINLILVQUSHIXINGXIANG 0 HUIGUI,BULEIDUNSENLINTIXIDEBENGKUIHOU→ZHONGDONGBAOFUDAOZHIDIYICISHIYOUWEIJIDEBAOFA→MEIGUOXINGCHENGYANZHONGDEZHIZHANG→MEILIANCHUZHUXIWOERKEDAFUJIAXI→CHANNENGCHUQING→JIXINGEFANGWENSHATECHENGNUODUISHATEDEBAOHUHEYUANZHU→SHIYOUJINYUNJIECHU、SHIYOUMEIYUANBENWEIDEJIANLI→JIECHUZHIZHANG。ERMEIGUODEJINGJIJIEGOUYEKAISHICONGSHENGCHANJIAGONGZHIZAODEDIERCHANYELADONG GDP ZHUANXIANGWEIDISANCHANYELADONG GDP DEJIEGOU。

ZAIMEIGUOJIEGOUZHUANXINGQIYESHIQUANQIUJINGJIYITIHUADEKAIDUAN,20 SHIJI 80 NIANDAIXINXIJISHUDEGEMINGZAIQUANQIUFENGONGHEZUODETUIDONGXIALADONGQUANQIUJINGJI,QUANQIUJINGJIYITIHUADETISHENGTUIDONGSHIJIEDUIYUMEIYUANDEXUQIU,MEIYUANWEILEBAOCHIBIZHIDEWENDINGHEWEIHUMEIYUANXINYONGXUYAOJINGCHANGXIANGMUSHUNCHALAIWEIHUSHICHANGJUNHENG。

ZHONGMEIXIANZAIDEMAOYIZHANYUANYINZAIYUZHONGGUOCHIXUDESHUANGSHUNCHASHIHENG。XIANRUJINMIANDUIDESHIMEIYUANTIXIDETANTA,ZHENGRUTELIFENNANTIGAOJIEWOMENYIKAOZHUQUANGUOJIAHUOBILAICHONGDANGGUOJIQINGCHANGNENGLIDEHUOBITIXIBIRANHUIXIANRU“TELIFENNANTI”ERZOUXIANGBENGKUI。ZAICIBEIJINGXIAQUKUAILIANDEDANSHENGYOUWANGJIEJUEXINRENWENTIGENJUQIFENBUSHI、QUZHONGXINHUA、QUXINRENHUA、BUKECUANGAI、BUKESHANCHUDETEZHENGLAIZHONGSUQUANQIUHUOBITIXI。

JUTILUJINGWODADANCAIXIANGSHIQUKUAILIANXIANJIEZHUZHUQUANHUOBIFAZHANXIANGMUYUSHITIJINGJIDUIJIE,RANHOUZAIZHUQUANGUOJIAFASHENGWEIJISHIZAIQUMEIYUANHUAHUOZHEZHUQUANHUOBIWEIMEIJIE(DANGXINDAIJINSUOSHICHIYOUMEIYUANCHENGBENGUOGAO,LIUDONGXINGSHOUWEIXIEHUIPAOSHOUZICHANLAIHUANQUMEIYUANLAIHUODELIUDONGXING,DANGJINSUOGUOKUAISHIDALIANGDEPAOSHOUHUISHIDESHICHANGBODONGGUODA),RANHOUTONGGUO LIBRA ZHEIZHONGWEITONGYONGHUOBI(MAODINGYILANZISHANGPIN)LAIJINXINGJIAOYI。YOUDIANLEISIHAYEKEXIEDE《HUOBIDEFEIGUOJIAHUA》DEZHANWANG,JIARUZHENDERUSHANGTUIYAN,SHUZIHUOBIDEBODONGXINGKENENGHUIDAFUXIAJIANG。

从跨境资本流动的角度看比特币的价值在哪?

XINXINGSHICHANGGUOJIAZAIFAZHANJINGJISHITONGCHANGSHITONGGUOZIYUANBINGFUYOUSHI,TONGGUOSHENGCHAN、JIAGONG、ZHIZAO、LILVSHANGXING、TONGZHANG,JINGJIZENGZHANG、JIUYE、GUSHIBIAOXIANQIANGSHI,JINGCHANGXIANGMUSHUNCHA,ZIBENLIURU,DANGZIYUANBINGFUYOUSHIBUZAIJIXUCHIXUSHI,TOUZISHOUYILVSHOUZHAI,ZAIQIANGSHIHUOBIXIAZIBENKAISHITUIDONGXUNIJINGJIDEFANRONG,ZUIHOUZHAIWUBUKECHIXUSHIPAOMOPOMIE,ZIJINWAITAOJIDUIWAIHUICHUBEI。

YOUYUBITEBIJIAOYICHENGBENDI、SUDUKUAI、GUIMODA,ZAIYIXIEZIBENKONGZHIGUOJIAXINGCHENGLEBITEBIQUDAODEZIBENWAITAO,SHENZHIDAILAILEYANZHONGDEDUANQIGUOJIZIBENYICHANGLIUDONG,TAIGUOZAI 2014 NIAN 5 YUEJUNSHIZHENGBIANQIJIAN、BOLANZAI 2014 NIAN 12 YUEELUOSIJINRONGSHICHANGBAODIEQIJIAN、NANFEIZAI 2015 NIAN 4 YUESAOLUANQIJIANHEBOLANZAI 2015 NIAN 5 YUEDAXUANQIJIAN,JUNCHUXIANLEBENGUOZIBENJIEZHUBITEBIYICHANGLIUCHUDEJIXIANG。ZAIRUJINXINXINGSHICHANGPINXIANHUOBIBAOBIAN,GENGDUODESHIYINWEIWAIHUIDEXIQUEXING,ERQUKUAILIANJISHUDETEXINGYOUWANGZHENZHENGZUODAOGOUMAILIPINGJIADEJIASHE。

RUJINZAIMEILIANCHUDAFANGSHUIDEBEIJINGXIAGUOZHAISHOUYILVBUDUANZOUDI,ERTONGZHANGMEIYOUDAFUBODONGDEQINGKUANGXIASHIJILILVBUDUANZOUDIWEIFUZHI,ZHEISHIDECHIYOUZICHANDEJIHUICHENGBENGENGDI,SHENZHISHIGULIRENMENCHIYOUZICHAN。

NewBloc投研:深思比特币长远价值与短期波动

Source:DONGFANGCAIFU

RUSHANGTU,SHIMEIGUOSHINIANQIGUOZHAIQIHUO,GUOZHAIQIHUOZOUGAOFANYINGDESHIGUOZHAISHOUYILVDEZOUDI,SHISHICHANGDUIWEILAIJINGJIHUIBAOLVDEBEIGUANYUQIHEMEIGUOZHENGFUNIZHOUQIDIAOJIEDEZONGHEJIEGUO,RUJINZAIYIMIAODELIHAODUANQILIHAOJINGJIDEFUSU、GUOZHAISHOUYILVZOUGAO,DANZHANGQIKANQUANQIUJINGJISHOUZHIYURENKOULAOLINGHUA、PANGDADEZHAIWUGUIMO、ZHAIWUWENTIYINFADEDIYUAN、ZHENGZHI、JIEJIMAODUNJIAJUDENGYIXILIEWENTI。

NewBloc投研:深思比特币长远价值与短期波动

Source:LongHash

GUOZHAISHOUYILVCONG 2018 NIAN 10 YUEKAISHIZOUDI,DUIYINGDESHIMEILIANCHUDEJIANGXIHEKUANCAIZHENGZHOUQIKAISHI。HOUMIANWOMENYEKANDAOHUANGJIN 2018 NIAN 10 YUEJIANDI,BIAOPU 500 ZAI 2018 NIAN 10 YUEDIJIANDI,BITEBIZAI 2018 NIAN 12 YUEDIJIANDI。BINGQIEZAIZHIHOUTAMENDEXIANGGUANXINGYUELAIYUEQIANG,QIBEIHOUDELUOJISHIZAIKUANSONGZHOUQIXIA,QUANQIUJINGJITUOSHIXIANGXUDECHENGDUZAIBUDUANJIASHEN,JINRONGXUQIUTUIDONGXIADAOZHIXIANGGUANXINGZOUQIANG。

NewBloc投研:深思比特币长远价值与短期波动

Source:Incrementum AG

SHANGTUSHIGEHENYOUYISIDETU,DANGBIZHIBUDUANZOUDISHIWANGWANGFASHENGDESHIPAOMOJINGJI,KEYIKANDAOCONG 2010 NIANZHIJINBIZHIYIZHIZAIZOUDI,WEILAIPAOMOSHENMESHIHOUPOMIEWOMENBUDEERZHI,YOUKENENGSHIYICIMEILIANCHUDEWUPAN,HUOZHEZHONGDONGBAOFADEZHANZHENGDENG,DANWOMENZHIDAODESHIMEILIANCHUDEGONGJUXIANG,CAIZHENGKONGJIANDOUSUOSHENGWUJI,YINCIKEYIYUCEMEILIANCHUBUGANQIANZHANYUPAN,GENGDUODESHIBAOSHOU,DENGSHUJUCHULAIHUOZHESHIJIANFASHENGCAIKENENGZUOCHUGAIBIAN。ZHEIYOUSHILIHAOJINRONGZICHAN。

RUGUOPAOMOPOMIE,KENENGDEDAOHUOXIANSHIZHONGDONGBAOFAZHANZHENG,BAOFAZHANZHENGSHIYOUDAFUDUSHANGXING,TONGZHANGYUQIDAFUZOUGAO,MINGYILILVYUQIZOUGAO,TOUZIZHEFENGXIANPIANHAOKAISHIDAFUJIANRUO,TIQIANPAOSHOUJINRONGZICHAN,LIUDONGXINGJINZHANG,ZHAIWUGANGGANPOLIE,ZUIHOUZHENGGEPAOMOPOLIE。ZHEISHIKANMEILIANCHUDEXINGDONGSHIJIAN,SHENMESHIHOUJIXU MMT LAITIANBUZHAIWU。

DANGXIAHUANGJINZOUQIANGDEBINGBUWANQUANSHIBIXIANSHUXINGDETUIDONG,GENGDUODESHIYINWEI 2018 NIANMINGYILILVDAFUXIAJIANG,DAOZHIDESHIJILILVKUAISUXIAJIANGERDAOZHIDEJINRONGXUQIUTUIDONGDEZICHANJIAGESHANGZHANG。RUXIATUSHIHUANGJINJIAGEYUBIAOPU 500 ZHISHUDEBI。

NewBloc投研:深思比特币长远价值与短期波动

Source:Tubiao jia

NewBloc投研:深思比特币长远价值与短期波动

Source:Coin Metrics

HUIGULISHI 20 SHIJI 80 NIANDAIHUANGJINZUOWEIBIXIANZICHANDAFUDUPAOYINGZUOWEIFENGXIANZICHANDEBIAOPU 500 ZHISHU。SHANGMIANDEXIANGGUANXINGYEXIANSHIHUANGJIN、BITEBI、BIAOPU 500 ZHISHUXIANGGUANXINGYEXIANSHIXIANZAIDOUJUYOUJIAOQIANGDEXIANGGUANXING。YINCIDANSHUOBITEBIHEHUANGJINXIANGGUANXINGGAOJIUSHILEIHUANGJINDEXINYONGDUICHONGZICHANHAIWEISHIGUOZAO。BUGUOHUANGJINYUBITEBIYOUXUDUOXIANGSIZHICHU:

1、HUANGJINWULIXINGZHIWENDING,YIBAOCUN,ERBITEBIJUYOUANQUANXING、NIMING、MIANSHUI、MIANJIANGUAN;

2、HUANGJINCHULIANGDI,MEINIANCHANLIANGYOUXIAN,BITEBIWAKUANGCHENGBENGAO,MEISINIANJIANBANYICI,CHANLIANGYOUXIAN;

3、HUANGJINZAILISHISHANGJIUBEISHIJIEGEGUOGUANGFANYONGZUOHUOBI,ERHUANGJINCHUBEICHENGWEIWENDINGHUOBIJIAZHIHEHUILVDEZHONGYAOZHICHENG;XIANGSIDELEIBI,RUGUOWEILAI LIBRA WEITONGYONGHUOBI,BITEBIJIUJUBEIBEI Facebook CHUZANG,WENDING Facebook JINGYINGDEZHONGYAOZHICHENG。

WEILAIRUGUOGENGDUODERENRENWEIBITEBIYUHUANGJINDOUSHUYUBIXIANZICHAN,YEYOUKENENGZAIZHEIZHONGYUQIXIASHIXIANYUQIDEZIWOSHIXIAN。

NewBloc投研:深思比特币长远价值与短期波动

RUSHANGTU,WOMENKEYIKANDAOCONG 20 SHIJI 80 NIANDAINIANKAISHI,HUANGJINDEMINGYIJIAGEYUSHIJIJIAGEBUDUANKAOLONG,BEIHOUDELUOJISHIYOUYUQUANQIUJINGJIDEFENGONGHEZUO,TONGZHANGYUANCAILIAOJIAGESHANGZHANGGENGDUODESHIXINXINGSHICHANGGUOJIALAICHENGDAN,ERTAMENDECHANCHUZHUJIANGUOSHENG,DAOZHICHUKOUJIAGEZOUDI,YINCICONG 20 SHIJI 80 NIANDAIKAISHIHUANGJINYUTONGZHANGDEXIANGGUANXINGZHUJIANZOURUO,CHANNENGGUOSHENGTONGSUOWENTIXIANZHU,ZHAIWU——TONGSUOEXINGXUNHUANWENTIXIANZHU。

ZUOWEIBIXIANZICHANDEHUANGJINXINYONGDUICHONGKENENGZAICIGUOCHENGZHUJIANXIANXIAN。QIZHONGBITEBIYUHUANGJINZOUSHIXIANGGUANXINGJIAOGAO,BITEBISHIFOUYEJUYOUXINYONGDUICHONGXIANZAIWUCONGDEZHI,RUGUOWEILAIYOUYUZHAIWUWENTI,HUANGJIN、BIAOPU 500 ZHISHUXIANGGUANXINGZOURUO,ERBITEBIYIRANYUHUANGJINYOUQIANGXIANGGUANXINGZEKEYIPANDUANBITEBIYEJUYOUXINYONGDUICHONGSHUXING。

ZONGSHANGSUOSHU,YUPANWEILAIZOUSHIXUYAOGUANZHUDESHILIUDONGXINGSHIFOUHUICHIXU,ERBUSHIBIXIANSHUXING,HUANGJINZHANGQILAIKANBIXIANSHUXINGSHIZHENGFUDEXINYONGDUICHONG。RUJINSUIRANJINGJIDEBUPINGHENG。MEIYUANTIXIXIA,YOUGUOJIMAOYIHEZIBENLIUDONGCUISHENGDEQUANQIUJINGJIDESHIHENGTEZHENGBIAOXIANWEI:

1、MEIGUORENGSHIDALIANGJINGCHANGZHANGHUNICHADEHEXINGUO;

2、XINXINGSHICHANGGUOJIAHEFAZHANZHONGGUOJIADESHUNCHAMINGXIANZENGJIA;

3、MAOYIHETOUZIZENGZHANGLVYUANCHAO GDP,XUNIJINGJIFAZHANSUDUJIAKUAI,QUANQIUJINGJISHIHENGGUIMOZAIZHEIZHONGBEIJINGXIACHIXUKUODA。KEYIKANDAO,ZAIMEIYUANTIXIZHONG,ZAOCHENGMAOYIHEJINGJISHIHENGDEGENYUANRENGRANMEIYOUXIAOCHU,BINGQIEZAIGAOSUDEZIBENLIUDONGZHONGYOUJINYIBUJIASHENDEQUSHI。CHULEMAOYINICHAQUDAOZHIWAI,ZIBENXIANGMUSHIMEIGUOSHUCHULIUDONGXINGDELINGYITIAOZHONGYAOQUDAO,SUIZHEQUANQIUDUICHUBEIZICHANXUQIUDEZENGJIA,SHICHANGDUIYUJUYOUZHUQUANCAIZHENGQINGCHANGNENGLIDEANQUANZICHANDEXUQIUYEJIANGZENGJIA。

ZHEIJIUYIWEIZHEGUOZHAIFAXINGLIANGJIANGSUIZHEQUANQIUCHUBEIZICHANXUQIUDEKUOZHANGERKUOZHANG,DANZHAIQUANDEFAXINGGUIMODUIZHUQUANZHAIQUANDEQINGCHANGLISUOCHANSHENGDEFUMIANZUOYONGYEJIANGYUELAIYUEDA,KAOLVDAOFADAGUOJIADEPUBIANZHAIWUGUIMOHESHOUYILVSHUIPING,WOMENZHENGMIANLINYIGEWUJIEDEBEILUN。ERRUJIN DeFi YOUWANGJIANLIYIGEQUANXINDEJINRONGXITONG,LAIJIEJUEKUNRAOYIJIUDETELIFENNANTI,DANWEILAIRUHEYANBIANXUYAOJINYIBUGUANCHA。

美元指数短时筑底,全球风险资产或面临短时回调

NewBloc投研:深思比特币长远价值与短期波动

NewBloc投研:深思比特币长远价值与短期波动

Source:DONGFANGCAIFU

RUSHANGTU,MEIYUANZHISHUYUMEIZHAIFENBIEYINGLAIZULIWEIHEQIANGZHICHENGWEI,JIEZHI 12 YUE 11 RIFENBIESHOUYU 90.99 HE137.7344;JIEHESHISHI,XIAZHOUSIJIANGYINGLAIMEILIANCHUHUIYI,YUJIXIAZHOUJIANGWEIRAOZULIWEIHEZHICHENGWEICHENGXIANZHENDANGZOUSHI。ZHEIDUANSHIJIANTONGDEJIAGEZOUSHIJIAOQIANG,YIWEIZHEDUIWEILAIJINGJIYOUZHEJIAOHAODEYUQI;GUOZHAISHOUYILVZOUGAO,HUANGJINZOURUO,JINGDAIXIAZHOUSIMEILIANCHUFABUXINXIAOXI,SHICHANGHUOJIANGXUANZEFANGXIANG,MEILIANCHUYEKENENGZAIDENGDAIMEIGUOCAIZHENGCIJIXIAOXI,HUOXUYIHUISHANGBUHUIXUANBUGUODUODEXINXI,YUJISHICHANGZHENDANGGAILVPIANDA;MEIYUANZHISHUDEDUANSHIZHUDIHEMEIZHAIDECHIXUZOUQIANG,QUANQIUFENGXIANZICHANHUOMIANLINDUANSHIHUIDIAODEFENGXIAN。

经济不确定性飙升,难掩比特币大级别下跌颓势

NewBloc投研:深思比特币长远价值与短期波动

Source:DONGFANGCAIFU

RUSHANGTU,BITEBIGAOWEIFANGLIANGXIADIEHOU,ZAICIFANGLIANGFANDANXINGAOHOUKAISHISUOLIANGDIAOZHENG,DANCONGJISHUMIANLAIKANCIWEIZHIYIHENGPANJIAOHUANCHOUMAWEIZHU,JINQIBODONGLVHUOZHUBUBIANXIAO,CHONGFENHUANSHOUHOUZAIXUANZEFANGXIANG。XIAOXIMIANSHANGGUANZHUCAIZHENGZHENGCEHEMEILIANCHUDONGXIANG,SHIFOUHUIJINYIBULIUDONGXINGKUANSONGKUODAZENGLIANGZIJINDELIURU。PANMIANSHANGXUYAOGUANZHUSHICHANGQINGXUDEBIANHUA,QINGXUEHUAYEKENENGPOWEIHOUZAIZHAOZHICHENG。

NewBloc投研:深思比特币长远价值与短期波动

Source:bybt

GENJU bybyt SHUJUXIANSHI,MUQIANBITEBIXINTUOJIJIN Grayscale CHICANGLIANGWEI 55.35 WANMEI BTC,ZHANBITEBIZONGLIUTONGLIANGDE 2.98%,SUIRANCHICANGLIANGCHIXUZENGJIA,DANSHISHANGZHANGSULVYOUSUOJIANHUAN,YIDANSHANGZHANGQUSHINIZHUAN,MUQIANDUOTOUDECHICANGJIANGBIANCHENGQIANZAIKONGTOU,LEIBIHUANGJIN SPDR Gold Trust ETF 9 YUEDAO 10 YUEDECHICANGLIANGBIANHUA;CONGXIANHUORONGZIRONGQUANDESHUJULAIKAN,GANGGANDUOKONGBIJIAOSHANGZHOUSHANGZHANG 60%,SHUOMINGMUQIANDUOTOUQINGXUJIAOZHONG,ZHUYIFENGXIAN。

NewBloc投研:深思比特币长远价值与短期波动

Source:dyhjw.com

季度合约临近交割,需注意下行风险

NewBloc投研:深思比特币长远价值与短期波动

Source:bybt

BITEBIQIHUOSHUJUFUWUWANGZHAN bybt XIANSHI,JIEZHI 12 YUE 11 RI,QUANWANGBITEBICHICANGSHULIANGWEI 37.83 WANMEI,DA 47.49 YIMEIYUAN,CHUZAILISHIGAODIAN,CHICANGLIANGDEZENGGAOWANGWANGYIWEIBIANPANLINJIN。

NewBloc投研:深思比特币长远价值与短期波动

NewBloc投研:深思比特币长远价值与短期波动

Source:OKEx

JINQIDANGJIHEYUESHENGSHUIYOUSUOXIAJIANG,YOUSHANGZHOUGAODIAN 1.5% XIAJIANGZHIMUQIANDE 0.44 %,BITEBIJIDUHEYUEJUJIAOGEHAIYOU 14 TIAN,CONGLISHIDEJIAODUKAN,JIDUHEYUELINJINJIAOGEDEYIGEYUEBIAOXIANDUOWEIRUOSHIXINGQING(JIDUHEYUEZHANZHENGGEBITEBIQIHUOSHICHANGCHICANGLIANGDEYIBANYISHANG),CONGXIANHUORONGZIRONGQUANDESHUJULAIKAN,GANGGANDUOKONGBIJIAOSHANGZHOUSHANGZHANG 60%,SHUOMINGMUQIANDUOTOUQINGXUJIAOZHONG,JIANYIZAIJIDUHEYUEJIAOGEQIANZHUYIFENGXIAN。

免责声明

发文时比特币价格:$16778

当前比特币价格: $18,448.59

当前比特币涨幅: 2.63%

免责声明:

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